Yole Développement has edited a new report describing the market and technology trends for HB LEDs in general illumination and automotive lighting.

In 2007, GaN-based LEDs will reach a higher luminous efficiency than fluorescents. The ramping-up of solid-state lighting business will really start at that time.

Companies like Lumileds, Osram, Nichia or Cree are now marketing high brightness white LEDs with more than 40 lumen/watt efficiency) and an ASP less than 5$/part.We forecast that the annual demand for LEDs for general illumination should reach about 3.6 billions units in 2010 and between 4 to 7 billions units after 2020.

HB-LEDs have also really strong market opportunities in the automotive, many reasons for that, among them:

• important reliability (e.g. lifetime much larger than needed 10 000 h while 3 000 h is necessary for low beams)
• use for internal and external lighting,
• low consumption,
• …

The small size of LEDs enables:

• new design possibilities (for external light, they could be very close to the optics)
• increased integration (for internal light, their small size is ideal as little space is available)

In term of security, LEDs have fast reaction time: LEDs light up around 250 milliseconds quicker than bulbs. Therefore, at 100 km/h speed, that means a gain in braking distance of 7 meters.

HBLEDs have large market opportunities for front lighting as the HBLEDs performance will increase, less chips will be necessary (less than 15 should be necessary in 2009 for all functions). The cost objective for auto (10$/klm) will be reached in 2010 for a wide diffusion of HBLEDs in front lighting. However, HBLEDs should be implemented before this date (around 2007) on high-end cars

The market for HB-LEDs for front light is just starting. We forecast that it should reach $90 millions in 2009. The whiteLEDs market will be shared by 5 major players: Lumileds, Osram, Nichia, Toyoda Gosei and Cree.

Today a high-end car can have up to 200 LEDs and this figure is expected to grow in the future: it could be up to 800 LEDs in 2009.Until 2007, HB-LED market will linearly grow, benefiting from automotive and LCD TV market increasing to reach about $3.5 billion.2007 is the turning point where general illumination business will start. Depending of the lm/lamp and $/lm couples, illumination market could reach about $3billion by 2010.

Benefits of the report for suppliers of the LED industry:

• Bring a complete analysis of HB LED food-chain
• Highlight the hottest potential customers
• Give a quantitative view of volumes of wafers or epiwafers to produce
• Help to set up a commercial offer in relation with the roadmap, the technical bottlenecks and the customers’ needs

Benefits of the report for the manufacturers of LED devices:

• Highlight markets to target with in-depth analysis of how and when access the business
• Give quantitative figures of components volume for manufacturing
• Help you to define the right approach in terms of material and substrates

Introduction HB-LED general data

Global HB-LED market analysis

• Nitride-based LEDs market analysis
• White/blue GaN
• LED Performance and price roadmap 2” substrates volumes forecasts for GaN based LEDs 2001-2007
• Cree strategy and evolution
• Companies facts
• Chips scribing & dicing
• Estimation of different GaN-LED cost break-down

General illumination market

• Worldwide estimation of generated lumens
• Forecast for LEDs in general illumination 2007-2020
• Total 2” equivalent wafers volume for GaN HB-LEDs
• Conclusions on HB-LED business for illumi-nation

Car Lighting Market

Synthesis

• Front lighting LEDs-based
• Rear lighting LEDs-based
• Interior lighting LEDs-based Technologies LEDs and HBLEDs
• Price, performances and SWOT analysis

Applications

• External lighting
• Front lighting
• Adaptive Front lighting System (AFS)
• Rear Lighting
• Interior lighting

Market

• Sales forecasts for lighting 2003 – 2009 (front, rear and interior lighting)

Conclusions

Appendices